As the Premier calls a by-election to fill a Nanaimo seat left empty by now city mayor Leonard Krog at least one political science professor says it is anybody’s guess who wins.

University of the Fraser Valley’s Hamish Telford says it is a real crap shoot

“Absolutely. In B.C. government typically do poorly in by-elections because often voters want to take the opportunity to send governments a message. In this case it is more than just sending a message. If the people of Nanaimo elect someone other than an NDP’er to maintain the status quo you could bring down the government.”

Then Telford says then you factor in traditionally low voter turn outs in by-elections, a very short campaign period, and a four way race with several well known Nanaimo names.

They include the BC Greens Michele Ney, daughter of a well known former Nanaimo mayor, the late Frank Ney.

The NDP candidate is Sheila Malcolmson the area’s federal NDP member of parliament.

While the Liberals are tapping Tony Harris whose family is well known in the city.

The BC Conservatives who say they will vye for the seat have yet to announce a candidate.

“If that had been a three way race you might have given the Liberals a little more of an advantage given that the Greens and NDP might split the vote. But that might be all counter balanced by a conservative running. The Conservative Party is very small these days and not getting a lot of public conversation but in a by-election siphoning off a few hundred votes might make the difference. Again it is very difficult to predict how it all plays out.”

Telford notes if the Liberals can pull out a win it would tie the seats in the legislature 43-43 potentially setting the stage for the government to fall.

The by-election will be held January 30th.