B.C.’s top doctor is projecting that COVID-19 will be nearly entirely wiped out by September if vaccine uptake continues to be high and people limit their contacts to 70 per cent of normal.
Dr. Bonnie Henry says fewer new infections reflect the power of vaccines, with nearly 73 per cent of eligible residents aged 12 and up having had their first shot.
“Happily we see that in most areas of the province there have been little to no cases,” she said today. “There continues to be transmission in the Lower Mainland and a few hot spots including in the Peace Region in the north and also the Grand Forks area.”
“This reminds us that there still can be transmission if we are not careful but it does also reflect the fact that as many more people are protected through immunization, our risk of transmission and the risk of the virus in our communities is going down dramatically.”
A total of 3,823,103 shots have been administered in the province, including 443,562 second doses – about ten per cent of all adults. Henry says B.C. is now administering COVID-19 vaccines at a rate of about 325,000 shots each week.
“Starting in the middle of April, we had a dramatic drop in cases overall. Shortly, thereafter we started to see a decrease in hospitalization which continues. One of the things that we note on this, and it reflects again, the power of the immunizations programs that we have is that deaths have remained low throughout the third wave.”
Daily new cases though could cross the 200 mark if people return to 80 per cent of normal contacts along with a lower second-dose vaccination rate.
B.C. Health Minister Adrian Dix said 24 per cent of British Columbians aged 70 and above have now received a second dose, while 17 per cent of those 60 and above have received a second dose, and 14 per cent of those 50 and above have had a second dose.
There were 153 new cases reported today along with four more deaths. Interior Health had 39 new cases, with 73 in Fraser Health, 21 in Vancouver Coastal Health, 11 on Vancouver Island, and nine in Northern Health.
The province is expected to move to Step 2 of its four-step restart plan on Tuesday, when, among other things, indoor and outdoor personal gatherings of up to 50 people will be allowed.
Also poised to return is travel within the province, high-intensity indoor group exercise and team sports.
“I am optimistic in a way that I’ve not been for a long time,” Henry said.
Active cases of COVID-19 are now at 1,910 with 176 people now in hospital. Both of those numbers are down from yesterday, though the number of people in ICU – 49 – is up by two from yesterday.
“It is important to note that invitations to book a second dose will only be sent after eight weeks. At this point, given the strong demand, appointments are being booked in most locations two to three weeks later,” Henry said. “This interval is well within the safe range for everyone and data shows it may lead to a stronger and longer-lasting immune response.”
During her COVID update, Henry also presented modelling that suggests the number of daily cases could level off or even increase this summer as people begin having more social contact. However, she doesn’t expect the virus to transmit widely given the rate of vaccines, with Henry confident that public health will be able to manage a small uptick through vaccinations and other measures.
Modelling also showed that COVID-19 variants of concern have taken over in B.C., with the alpha (B.1.1.7) variant first identified in the U.K. accounting for 54 per cent of cases while the gamma (P1) variant first seen in Brazil making up another 42 per cent.
The delta (B.1.617.2) variant first identified in India is also growing in prevalence and currently accounts for about four per cent of cases.