Canada’s public health agency is projecting that 11,000 to 22,000 Canadians could die of COVID-19 in the coming months, even with the strongest control measures possible in place.
If those controls are weak, the number of deaths could spike to more than 100,000. With no controls in place, up to 80 per cent of Canadians could contract the virus, which could also lead to 300,000 deaths.
The Public Health Agency of Canada says short-term estimates are more reliable with between 500 and 700 expected by the end of next week. Right now Canada sits at 462 deaths, as of 8:15 a.m. on Thursday.
The agency released modelling data this morning with different possible scenarios, warning that what happens depends very much on how Canadians behave to keep the respiratory illness from spreading.
It says the COVID-19 battle in Canada remains in the early stages, but the number of confirmed cases have been increasing more slowly than in other countries.
“It is important to be aware of the limitations and benefits of modelling. Models are not crystal balls and we cannot predict the future with them,” said Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief medical officer. “However, they do help us to plan and they tell us that our collective actions can have a direct and significant impact on the epidemic trajectory.”
According to the Public Health Agency of Canada, the fight will likely take many months and require cycles of both tighter and weaker controls.
“We expect subsequent smaller waves. That’s why it’s difficult to say nationally that at such-and-such a date, we’ll be able to set aside these measures,” noted Dr. Howard Njoo, the deputy chief public health officer.
“It’s up to each province and territory to monitor their epidemics very closely. If it becomes clear that we are on the downward side of the curve, we may be able to relax some measures but it will be up to the provinces and territories.”
B.C. appears to have flattened its curve, reporting 48 deaths and 1,336 cases across the province as of Wednesday afternoon. 63 per cent of confirmed cases – 838 people – are now considered to have recovered from the virus in the province.
